The UK’s “Brexit” campaign is doomed – if bookmakers are right again.
“As we edge closer to the EU referendum on June 23, the latest opinion polls put the Remain and Leave campaigns either neck and neck or at least close together.
But the reputation of opinion polls has plummeted following their abject failure to predict the winner of last year’s general election. According to a recent independent review by Professor Patrick Sturgis of the University of Southampton, inadequate sampling procedures led to biased estimates of party support.
Prediction markets, which are often based on betting odds, are an increasingly popular alternative for predicting election outcomes. When you look at their past performance, they have been relatively successful.”