Brexit campaign is doomed

Posted on

The UK’s “Brexit” campaign is doomed – if bookmakers are right again.

“As we edge closer to the EU referendum on June 23, the latest opinion polls put the Remain and Leave campaigns either neck and neck or at least close together.

But the reputation of opinion polls has plummeted following their abject failure to predict the winner of last year’s general election. According to a recent independent review by Professor Patrick Sturgis of the University of Southampton, inadequate sampling procedures led to biased estimates of party support.

Prediction markets, which are often based on betting odds, are an increasingly popular alternative for predicting election outcomes. When you look at their past performance, they have been relatively successful.”

Full article, by David Bell, Professor of Economics, University of Stirling, and posted in “The Conversation”



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s